16 Million People Could Lose Health Insurance If New Budget Bill Becomes Law

A new estimate from the Congressional Budget Office released June 4, 2025, reveals that up to 16 million people could lose health insurance if House Republicans’ proposed budget bill becomes law. The cuts, aimed at offsetting tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans, include slashing Medicaid by $715 billion and eliminating $335 billion in ACA subsidies over the next decade—amounting to more than $1 trillion in health care cuts. “This is a direct transfer of income from vulnerable families to the richest,” wrote the Economic Policy Institute, noting that the annual Medicaid cuts match the tax windfall millionaires would receive.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that at least 15 million people would lose coverage. These cuts disproportionately affect regions already struggling economically. An estimated 850,000 jobs could vanish, with 27 million workers living in counties most at risk. “Medicaid cuts will impose a sharp anti-stimulus to local economies,” the report warns. Hospitals, especially in rural areas, would be forced to scale back or close altogether, further reducing health access and destabilizing local economies.

Although GOP lawmakers defend the cuts as encouraging “able-bodied” adults to work, the proposal extends far beyond work requirements. The U.S. labor market’s instability—where 2 million workers are laid off monthly—means that job churn, not individual effort, is the main barrier to steady employment. “It is decisions made by employers and policymakers, not individual workers,” that determine job availability, the analysis states.

The bill also undermines wage growth. Workers currently forgo significant pay for employer-provided health coverage, often at greater cost than public plans like Medicaid. The Economic Policy Institute points out that “Medicaid and Medicare contain costs better than employer-based insurance,” and expanding public coverage would relieve pressure on wages.

Without Medicaid, the newly uninsured will still require emergency care, driving up costs for everyone. As hospitals face increased uncompensated care, insurance premiums could rise, and state and local governments will foot the bill. “The damage won’t be contained,” the report concludes. “For the very rich... it might end up being a good deal. For everybody else, it will not.” (Sources: CBO, EPI, CBPP)

Link: EPI.Org